Progress Pulse #2: Americans Split on AI’s Future Impact

In this edition of Progress Pulse, we explore whether Americans view artificial intelligence (AI) as a force for human flourishing or a threat. To find out, we commissioned a survey, conducted by The Harris Poll, among a nationally representative sample of over 2,000 U.S. adults. We presented two opposing visions of AI and asked Americans which one they agree with most. In the positive vision, AI helps people take greater control of their lives andbecome more creative and fulfilled, while driving advancements that increase prosperity and quality of life. In the negative vision, AI decreases personal control, creativity, and fulfillment, while causing disruptions that lead to economic instability and reduced quality of life.

OVERALL FINDINGS

Americans are slightly more likely to view AI as a threat to human flourishing than as a positive force; 54% endorse the view that AI will mainly have negative effects on the economy, societies, and our personal lives, and 46% endorse the view that AI will mainly have positive effects in these areas.

DEMOGRAPHICS AND ATTITUDES ABOUT AI

Men are slightly more likely to view AI as a force for human flourishing, and women are much more likely to view AI as a threat to human flourishing.

• Men: 54% believe AI supports flourishing; 46% believe AI threatens flourishing
• Women: 39% believe AI supports flourishing; 61% believe AI threatens flourishing

There is no significant difference across age groups.

• 18-34: 46% AI supports flourishing; 54% AI threatens flourishing
• 35-44: 50% AI supports flourishing; 50% AI threatens flourishing
• 45-54: 48% AI supports flourishing; 52% AI threatens flourishing
• 55-64: 46% AI supports flourishing; 54% AI threatens flourishing
• 65+: 44% AI supports flourishing; 56% AI threatens flourishing

College graduates and individuals with household incomes of $75,000 or more tend to be more positive towards AI.

• High school or less: 43% AI supports flourishing; 57% AI threatens flourishing
• Some college: 42% AI supports flourishing; 58% AI threatens flourishing
• College graduates: 52% AI supports flourishing; 48% AI threatens flourishing

• Income less than $50k: 43% AI supports flourishing; 57% AI threatens flourishing
• Income $50k to $74,9k: 40% AI supports flourishing; 60% AI threatens flourishing
• Income $75k to $99,9k: 48% AI supports flourishing; 52% AI threatens flourishing
• Income $100k or more: 50% AI supports flourishing; 50% AI threatens flourishing

Democrats are more likely than Republicans and Independents to have positive views about AI.

• Democrats: 53% AI supports flourishing; 47% AI threatens flourishing
• Independents: 44% AI supports flourishing; 56% AI threatens flourishing
• Republicans: 42% AI supports flourishing; 58% AI threatens flourishing

HOW VIEWS ABOUT HUMAN PROGRESS RELATE TO BELIEFS ABOUT AI

This AI survey question was fielded alongside a question about human progress reported in the last edition of Progress Pulse. Americans were asked whether they believe that in the coming decades the world will improve through human progress on big challenges or worsen due to failure to address these challenges.

There is a large difference in what people think about AI depending on whether they have a positive or negative outlook about the future in general:

• Positive outlook about progress (the world will get better): 60% AI supports flourishing; 40% AI threatens flourishing
• Negative outlook about progress (the world will get worse): 31% AI supports flourishing; 69% AI threatens flourishing

METHODOLOGY

This survey was conducted online within the United States by the Harris Poll on behalf of the Human Flourishing Lab from October 10-15, 2024, among 2,053 U.S. adults ages 18 and older. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. For this study, the sample data is accurate to within +/- 2.5 percentage points using a 95% confidence level. For complete survey methodology, including weighting variables and subgroup sample sizes, please contact croutledge@archbridgeinstitute.org

Respondents were presented with the following prompt:

We would like to understand your perspective on the future impact of artificial intelligence (AI). Consider the opinions of two individuals, Brown and James. 

Brown sees AI as a force for human flourishing. AI will enhance human abilities, driving advancements in science and technology. It will help people take greater control over their own lives and increase human flourishing, contributing to solutions for global challenges. AI will enable more creative and fulfilling activities, boost economic prosperity, and significantly improve overall quality of life.

James sees AI as a threat to human flourishing. AI will diminish human capabilities, causing disruptions in various fields. It will reduce people’s control over their own lives and decrease human flourishing, exacerbating global problems. AI will limit creative and fulfilling activities, lead to economic instability, and significantly undermine overall quality of life.

Respondents were asked to indicate whether they: strongly agree with Brown; somewhat agree with Brown; strongly agree with James; or somewhat agree with James.

PROGRESS PULSE

Progress Pulse is a data-driven research project of the Human Flourishing Lab exploring views about progress. We conduct regular surveys of the American people on questions related to human advancement, emerging technologies, and visions of the future.