Progress Pulse #1: A Nation Divided on Humanity’s Future

In the first edition of Progress Pulse, we explore a fundamental question about the future: Do Americans believe humans will make significant progress on big societal and global challenges in the coming decades, making life better for future generations? Or do they think we will fail to make progress, making life worse for future generations?

To find out, we commissioned a survey, conducted by The Harris Poll, among a nationally representative sample of over 2,000 U.S. adults.

Overall Findings

Americans are nearly evenly divided in their outlook on the future: 52% believe the world will get better in the coming decades, while 48% believe it will get worse. The strongest views are also closely balanced, with 15% strongly believing the world will get better, and 14% strongly believing it will get worse.

Key Demographic Differences

Men are more likely than women to expect progress in the future:

• Men: 56% believe the world will get better; 44% believe it will get worse
• Women: 48% believe the world will get better; 52% believe it will get worse

The outlook on the future varies notably across age groups, with a striking pattern: the youngest Americans are the most pessimistic about the future, while the oldest Americans are the most optimistic:

• 18-34: 47% better; 53% worse
• 35-44: 50% better; 50% worse
• 45-54: 50% better; 50% worse
• 55-64: 53% better; 47% worse
• 65+: 60% better; 40% worse

When examining age and gender together, interesting patterns emerge. Among women, age shows a particularly strong relationship with outlook:

• Women under 35: 40% better; 60% worse
• Women 65+: 62% better; 38% worse

Among men, there are no significant differences between age groups:

• Men under 35: 53% better; 47% worse
• Men 65+: 59% better, 41% worse

Level of education is related to outlook more than income:

• College graduates: 57% better; 43% worse
• High school graduates and those with some college: 49% better; 51% worse

• Household income less than $50k: 53% better, 47% worse
• Household income $50k to $74,9k: 48% better, 52% worse
• Household income $75k to $99,9k: 50% better, 50% worse
• Household income $100k or more: 53% better, 47% worse

Finally, there are notable differences based on political affiliation, with Democrats being the most optimistic and Republicans being the most pessimistic about the future of the world.

• Democrats: 61% better; 39% worse
• Independents: 51% better; 49% worse
• Republicans: 43% better; 57% worse

Methodology

This survey was conducted online within the United States by the Harris Poll on behalf of the Human Flourishing Lab from October 10-15, 2024, among 2,053 U.S. adults ages 18 and older. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. For this study, the sample data is accurate to within +/- 2.5 percentage points using a 95% confidence level. For complete survey methodology, including weighting variables and subgroup sample sizes, please contact croutledge@archbridgeinstitute.org

Respondents were presented with the following prompt:

We would like to better understand your perspective on the future of human progress. Consider the opinions of two individuals, Smith and Jones.

Smith believes the world will get better. In the coming decades, humans will make significant progress on big societal and global challenges and life will be better for future generations.

Jones believes the world will get worse. In the coming decades, humans will fail to make significant progress on big societal and global challenges and life will be worse for future generations.

Respondents were asked to indicate whether they: strongly agree with Smith; somewhat agree with Smith; strongly agree with Jones; or somewhat agree with Jones.

Progress Pulse

Progress Pulse is a data-driven research project of the Human Flourishing Lab exploring views about progress. We conduct regular surveys of the American people on questions related to human advancement, emerging technologies, and visions of the future.